Politicians, Newspapers, and Immigration Referendums: Exploring the Boundaries of Media Effects

(Previously circulated with the titles “Media Take-Over and Voting Behavior: Can Politician-Owned Newspapers Sway Voters?” and “When There Are No Media Effects: The Case of the Basler Zeitung”)

Abstract

Does acquiring a media company pay off politically? A growing body of literature suggests that politicallymotivated media owners shape media coverage and that media coverage affects political behavior; however, weknow little about the conditionality of such effects. To shed light on this question, I draw on a theory of media power to argue that there are conditions under which we should not expect slanted media to affect political outcomes: if media plurality and voters’ understanding of media owners’ political motives are sufficiently high. I illustrate empirically that such conditions exist by exploiting the sudden takeover of the Swiss regional dailyBasler Zeitung by a leading right-wing, anti-immigrant politician. Drawing on quantitative text analysis methodsand panel data analyses, I find that the takeover led to a right-wing turn in the newspaper’s immigration coverage and a reduced circulation rate. However, there is no evidence that it meaningfully affected local immigration voteoutcomes. These findings highlight that while rich politicians might be able to shape media coverage, there areconditions under which slanted media coverage does not significantly move vote outcomes in the preferred direction.

[Paper] [Online Appendix]