Bad News for Asylum Seekers: The Effect of Issue Salience on Judicial Decision Making


Immigration is a top concern among citizens in many European countries. Research shows that the salience of immigration concerns affects voters’ political behavior, but little is known about whether it influences professional decision makers’ behavior. This paper theorizes when we should expect judges to be influenced by issue salience and shows that Swiss asylum appeal judges are. Drawing on a dataset of all asylum appeals decided in Switzerland 2007 – 2015, I identify a substantial negative effect of issue salience on appeals’ success. Further analyses suggest that asylum salience leads judges to deviate from their preferred grant rate in low salience times and has a larger effect when newspapers cover topics that pertain to drivers of citizens’ anti-immigrant attitudes. These findings indicate that issue salience can present a challenge to the consistency of judicial decisions, even when made by professional judges.

[Paper] [Appendix] Please don’t cite or quote the paper without checking with me first.